The 2nd quarter 2025 legal entity briefing session will be held on the 17th. With the influence of factors such as taxes, export restrictions, and the exchange rate of New Taiwan Coins, the NTD method that will be called the next semiconductor indus...
The 2nd quarter 2025 legal entity briefing session will be held on the 17th. With the influence of factors such as taxes, export restrictions, and the exchange rate of New Taiwan Coins, the NTD method that will be called the next semiconductor industry trend will also receive special attention. Therefore, various legal persons and foreign investors also have expected views on the content of the legal representatives, which further affects the movement of the Taiwan Stock Exchange.
According to the estimates of the TEU Franchise last quarter, the estimated revenue was between 28.4 billion and 29.2 billion US dollars, with the median growth of 13% compared with the previous quarter and a 38% increase in the same period in 2024. Calculated at USD 1 to NT$32.5, the NT$923 billion to NT$949 billion, an increase of NT$10% to 13% from the first quarter, an increase of 37% to 41% in 2024, a gross profit margin of 57% to 59%, and a profit rate of 47% to 49%. The gross profit margin fell between 57.9% and 59.9%, and the operating interest rate was 47.9% to 49.9%.
In addition, NTU also stated that the annual capital expenditure was between US$38 billion and US$42 billion like last quarter, 70% was used for advanced processes, 10%~20% advanced packaging and 10%~20% special processing, 10%~20% advanced packaging, etc. The US dollar investment of Arizona, the United States, will affect gross profit margins within five years, from 2% to 3% per year to 3% to 4% per year. Taiwan Power continues to cooperate with customers and suppliers, hoping that Taiwan Power will become the most competitive industry and large-scale production base.
On this basis, the external income of each legal person has predicted the gross profit in 2025 and 2026, with the number falling between 54% and 58%. The estimated annual operating income growth is 23~30%, which is the result of the expansion of N2 processes and CoWoS advanced packaging under the strong demand in the AI market.
The reporting on the regulation of foreign capital of various legal persons to Taiwan's electric power operations is as follows:
Fubon 7/11 Report: Investment Rating "Buy" with a target price of NT$1,250.New Crystal Round pricing strategy and tax responsibilities have led to customers pulling goods in advance, resulting in the second quarter's revenue due to expectations. It is estimated that the price of hybrid crystals in the second quarter will rise by 3%, and the gross profit margin will drop to 56.8% in the second quarter, and the fluctuation in the exchange rate is partially offset by the price of the crystals. It is believed that the gross profit margin counter-rage has reflected the expectations of most investors and should not cause surprises in the market.
The EPS forecast for the second quarter was slightly increased from 15.47 yuan to 14.87 yuan, mainly because the N2 production volume and Taiwan’s high cost of electricity in the summer will also further decline in gross profit margin in the second half of the year. Therefore, the 2026 crystal price is necessary, but the range is still being discussed, and the expected price range will be at least comparable to 2025. This will bring the estimated gross profit margins to 56.8% and 55.5% in 2025 and 2026, and the revenue in 2025 will also increase by 23% year-on-year.
Morgan Stanley 7/13 Report: Investment Rating "Odd to Big Market", with a target price of NT$1,288.If Taiwan Electricity is up to its annual closing guidelines, there will be room for stock prices to rise. Recent industry visits, 3% to 4% of the second quarter of the harvest may come from some customers to withdraw goods in advance to avoid tax responsibilities. Therefore, the third quarter closing quarter is estimated to drop by 3.8%. The gross profit margin in the second quarter was estimated at 57.5%, while the gross profit margin in 2025 and 2026 came to 56.8% and 56.6%.
The annual increase in the rate of NTF electricity consumption increased. It was previously estimated that the U.S. dollar revenue will increase by 27% year-on-year, mainly due to strong demand for AI. The current second quarter closing is better than expected. If the third quarter closing increase is 1% quarterly, the fourth quarter is unchanged, with an annual increase of 27% is expected to be realized. As for the semiconductor tax-related problem, there is a chance to obtain exemptions or a broad deadline in the future because Taiwan Power continues to expand its investment in the United States and has tax deduction policy support.
Rui Silver 6/23 Report: Investment Rating "Buy" with a target price of NT$1.200.Taiwan's performance in the first half of the year was better than expectations and the impact of taxes in the second half of the year was controllable. In addition, due to strong demand in the Cloud AI market,Taiwan's opportunity to increase the expected growth of US dollar harvest to more than 25%. It is also expected that it will reiterate that the annual capital expenditure will remain between US$38 billion and US$42 billion. In addition, due to the view of N2 process expansion and update, Swiss Silver also raised its 2025 USD harvest growth estimate from 25% to 29%.
Swissilices raised its estimated capital expenditure in 2025 and 2026 from US$38 billion and US$40 billion to US$40 billion. Gross profit margin remained 57% in the second quarter of 2025, which allowed USD to rise by 1% in the third quarter, mainly benefiting from the demand for N5 and N3 process driven by HPC and flagship machines. As for the third quarter, fourth quarter and 2026, the gross profit margins will reach 56.5%, 56.0% and 55.5% respectively.
MacLeague 7/7 Report: Investment Rating "Odd to Big Market", with a target price of NT$1,282.Type's previous estimate of NT$ appreciation by 1%, which will result in a 0.4% decline in operating profit margins, suggesting that gross margins may be depressed from the second quarter. However, the strong growth of the advanced production stages has helped partly affect the negative impact of the exchange rate.
At present, the Design-in of the N2 process has surpassed the N3 process of the same period, showing diversified capacity requirements. The N2 and N3 processes will drive the US dollar growth by more than 20% in 2025, partially offsetting the reverse rate of exchange rate. As for overseas wafer manufacturers, the cost of overwhelming is unlikely to significantly expand N2 production capacity before 2029, reducing short-term gross profit pressure. Overall, the gross profit margins in 2025 and 2026 are estimated to reach 56.3% and 54.5%.
Yamato Securities 7/10 Report: Investment Rating "Buy" with a target price of NT$1,200.Report stated that Taiwan Electricity's second quarter closed NT$934 billion, a quarterly increase of 11% and an annual increase of 39%, slightly lower than the expected securities firms by about 1%, but roughly in line with the company's financial test and the market. EPS is estimated at 14.98 yuan for the second season.
As for the third quarter, the US dollar price increase by 5% quarter-on-quarter. If the exchange rate continues to be unfavorable, it may lead to a 5% reduction in the third quarter harvest and a 1.7% decrease in gross profit margin. The gross profit margins in the second and third quarters are estimated to be 58.9% and 58.3%. Although the fluctuations in exchange rate still exist, the company's fundamentals are conspicuous and the stock price is still attractive after the recent strong counter-revolution. If the financial results are disappointing due to exchange rate factors in the future, it will provide opportunities for dips.
Goldman Sachs 6/25 Report: Investment Rating "Buy" with a target price of NT$1,210.Upgrade company's profit estimate for 2% to 6% in 2025-2027, due to the increase in 3/5 nanometer process revenue forecasts and upgrade CoWoS shipment forecasts. CoWoS shipments are estimated to reach 664,000, 1.08 million, and 1.566 million films from 2025 to 2027, an increase of 585,000, 923,000, and 1.287 million films from the original 5.85 million, 923,000, and 1.287 million films. Capital expenditure for 2026-2027, estimated from the original US$40 billion and US$48 billion, was raised to US$42 billion and US$50 billion, reflecting a more positive view on CoWoS expansion.
In addition, the gross profit margins for the second quarter, third quarter and 2026 are estimated to be 56.9%, 56.0% and 54.1%. The third and fourth quarters will see a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.9% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 3.2%. As for the estimated annual revenue growth of 28.7% and 17.1% from 2025 to 2026, the main driving forces include the promotion of advanced process stages to bring ASP improvements, and the expected NTD will further adjust the prices of advanced process and CoWoS.
JPMorgan Chase 7/5 Report: Investment Rating "Odd to Big Market", with a target price of NT$1,275. The report pointed out that the second quarter financial report is expected to be impressive, with the US dollar accounting growth of 17% in the quarter, higher than the company's financial estimates of 11% to 14%. The estimated gross profit margin is 57.9%, which is to increase the utilization rate of the beneficiary and increase the price of the emergency order. Looking ahead to the second half of the year, compared with three months ago, overall demand is now more positive, which is expected to prompt Taiwan's electricity to adjust its annual USD harvest growth forecast to a maximum of 20%. In addition, since the second quarter has already been stocked in advance, the damage is expected to be stable in the second half of the year. If the demand in the non-AI field can remain unreliable, it may still bring upward space.The current estimate of the NT$' total annual 2025 NT$' harvest is 21%, and the gross profit margin in the second half of the year may drop to about 56% due to the exchange rate. As for the 2026 forecast, with strong AI demand, better than expected 2nm process demand, and rising prices, USD investment will earn high-teens expected growth, and gross profit margin can be maintained at around 56.9%. The report emphasizes that since the low point in early April, stock prices have cumulatively rebounded by more than 35%, and may enter the entire market in the short term, as the market's concerns on gross profit margin performance may rise again due to the appreciation of NT$.
Citigroup 6/26 Report: Investment Rating "Buy" with a target price of NT$1,280.Report estimates that the gross profit margin in the second quarter will be 57.8%, with an EPS of RMB 14.77. The NT$ capital revenue increased by 43% in the first five months of 2025. It is expected that the second half of the year will be stable, but the annual revenue still has a great chance of better than its annual financial survey. Although the semiconductor tax and overall economic inconsistency are still there, NTD is considered structurally advantageous because it is not directly shipped to the United States and its advanced processes are of great importance to high-level products.
In addition, AI-based facility investment has not seen a drop in temperature, and it is expected that AI will remain the main force in promoting growth. This makes the NTD CoWoS production capacity estimated to increase by more than 20% in 2026 and an additional 40% annually in 2027. It is estimated that the capacity of CoWoS advanced packaging production in 2025, 2026 and 2027 will reach 650k, 800k, and 1,100k. Overall capital expenditure in 2025 will fall within its median financial estimate, i.e. between $3.8 billion and $4.2 billion, and is estimated to reach $4.5 billion in 2026. The gross profit margins for the third quarter, fourth quarter and 2026 were 57.1%, 56.3%, and 55.5%. The third and fourth quarters closed will increase by 1% quarter-on-quarter and 2% quarter-on-quarter.
Securities 7/14 Report: Investment Rating "Hold", the target price is NT$1,110.Because of considering the impact of the appreciation of NT$, the profits in 2025 and 2026 will be adjusted by 6% and 7%. However, because AI is strong, the price-to-benefit ratio is improved. The second quarter gross profit margin was estimated at 57.6%, slightly below the 58% median consensus and financial measurement. It is estimated that the US dollar's closing quarter will increase by 2% to 3%. However, affected by the appreciation of NT$, gross profit margin is expected to drop to 56.1% in the third quarter.
In addition, due to the second quarter's better than expected, the US dollar's revenue increased by about 30% year-on-year in 2025, and capital expenditures for 2025 and 2026 are expected to be 39.5 billion and 41 billion US dollars. It is expected that NTD will also maintain a forecast of a combined annual increase of mid~40s% for AI investment..
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